Monthly Archives: October 2008

WordClouding Harper, Dion and neo-progressivism

Just got back from the Banff Forum this weekend where I had a great time making new friends, meeting up with old friends and – with Taylor – doing a panel where we discussed our Canadian Literary Review (LRC)article on how the Left is killing progressive politics. The audience gave us lots of positive feedback and, more importantly, new insights which is always both encouraging and helpful.

On the same day I discovered – thanks to the National Post (hey, it was delivered free to my hotel room) – a great site called wordle.net which creates word clouds out of any text or web page you submit it. Very cool stuff. The National Post ran each of the party’s policy platforms through wordle which I thought was creative for a newspaper (hard to imagine the Globe doing something like that). Sadly, I wish I could link to the images, but they don’t seem to available online.

Turns out the Star (using Tagcrowd) has also been creating clouds out of the speeches Dion and Harper gave one day apart at the Empire and Canadian Clubs in Toronto. Notice how the words Stephan and Dion don’t appear in Harper’s cloud whereas Stephen and Harper are among the most used words by Dion? Interesting. Also of note? Dion seems to think “jobs” will resonate, whereas Harper seems to believe “taxes” will.

Anyway, to come back to the LRC piece, I was so inspired by these tags I decided I’d create one for the LRC piece. Tada:

Created using Wordle.net

The Crash: The beginning of the end…

The response to the post on complexity theory and the financial crises has been very positive. Been recieving lots of positive feedback, thank you to any who have written or commented.

Several people, including Steven Johnson, the author of Emergence, posted a link to this great piece “The Economy Does not Compute” that I encourage everyone to read.

Dave D. emailed me with this fascinating story from the New York Times that arguably pinpoints the moment the incentives in the market were shifted that started us down the road to the present crises. Entitled Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending the piece is dated September 30th, 1999. This excerpt below really summarizes the underlying logic and benefits for initiating the change as well as predicts the ultimate catastrophe that it would unleash (remember, written in 1999):

”Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990’s by reducing down payment requirements,” said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae’s chairman and chief executive officer. ”Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.”

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.

”From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,” said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ”If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.”

The article shows us the challenges around blaming any one individual – except possibly Blll Clinton – as once the incentives for embracing a higher risk group were altered it vastly increased the chance that more and more people would cater to them and expose themselves to that risk.

The other fascinating thing about this piece is how the web is now getting to be old enough that it is becoming a fantastic tool for historians. Think of how much richer our history is going to be when critical documents like this one are both more accessible and easier to locate.

Presidential debates and conservative candidates

Enjoyed watching the presidential candidate debates last night. I’m not sure anyone did exceptionally well (if anything both candidates seemed tired). McCain’s temper/contempt for Obama flared up at least once, but the only real good hit of the evening was scored by Obama (full transcript here):

McCain: You know, my hero is a guy named Teddy Roosevelt. Teddy Roosevelt used to say walk softly — talk softly, but carry a big stick. Sen. Obama likes to talk loudly.

In fact, he said he wants to announce that he’s going to attack Pakistan. Remarkable.

You know, if you are a country and you’re trying to gain the support of another country, then you want to do everything you can that they would act in a cooperative fashion.

When you announce that you’re going to launch an attack into another country, it’s pretty obvious that you have the effect that it had in Pakistan: It turns public opinion against us.

Obama: Look, I — I want to be very clear about what I said. Nobody called for the invasion of Pakistan. Sen. McCain continues to repeat this…

…Now, Sen. McCain suggests that somehow, you know, I’m green behind the ears and, you know, I’m just spouting off, and he’s somber and responsible.

Sen. McCain, this is the guy who sang, “Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran,” who called for the annihilation of North Korea. That I don’t think is an example of “speaking softly.”

Zing.

Back in Canada, we’ve had the debates but only at between the party leaders. Sadly try having a debate at the local level in Canada. Our conservative candidates are more protected than Sarah Palin. Last night at the Canada’s World debate not one of 14 conservative candidates in the lower mainland could make it. Indeed, across the country it would appear that conservative candidates have been told to not do all candidate meetings. It’s a sad state of affairs for our democracy when the party in power essentially hides its politicians.

Check out this website for a list all the incidents identified so far where Conservative candidates have declined an invitation to attend an all candidates meeting.

dinner with winners

Friends in Vancouver – if you have any interest in attending the Vision Vancouver Fall Fundraiser please don’t be shy in dropping me a line.

I’m pretty excited about Vision’s new slate – which you can read about here – and our prospects in the upcoming election. These are exciting times for Vancouver – I get the sense that people want to see the city grow and mature in a way they haven’t before. That is certainly one of the reasons I moved back here and got involved in Vision.

If you want to start to see what it’s all about, come on out for the dinner…

Open Government comes to Canada

I Believe in Open Badge

For those who are Canadian and who believe in open, I strongly encourage you to check out and register with Ibelieveinopen.ca modeled after its US counterpart Open Congress.

The goal of Ibelieveinopen.ca is to:

  1. Support reforms that increase government transparency and accountability.
  2. Make campaign promises specific and measurable, and report progress on promises and their metrics at least semi-annually.
  3. Publish the content of his or her daily schedule, including meetings with lobbyists and special interest groups.
  4. Support reforms allowing free access to scientific and survey data gathered by government institutions.
  5. Support reforms that make it easier for Canadians to obtain government information they have a right to know.

By registering, you can begin to let your preferred candidate and your MP know what you expect of them. Will this change things today, or tomorrow? No… but the goal is to begin developing awareness among politicians and the public about what we can and should expect from our representatives.

In the US Open Congress has encouraged its supporters to donate money to candidates that have signed on to its pledge but have asked that the donations ends in .09 cents (e.g. $50.09). By “tagging” donations in this way, candidates will know how much of much of the money they raise is tied to the fact that they have pledged to be open. It then becomes a way for them to understand its popularity and to prioritize the goal of being open. Very cool.

Will it work in Canada? Who knows. but it is definitely worth a try. No?

The Canadian and American Debates: Ice and Fire?

Watching the debates – both the Canadian and US Veep contest – last night I was struck by how the debates both reflect each country’s political traditions and, in doing so ran counter to some old myths we have about Canadians and Americans.

In the US I thought that Biden easily trumped Palin – who managed to survive without too many big gaffs (although there were some very painful moments). In Canada, I thought May was the most interesting – aggressive, but grounded. Layton was good and Dion was not bad as well. Duceppe seemed relatively disengaged and Harper suffered both from the fact that he was able to rise above the fray and that he was getting attacked on all sides. Killer line of the night – delivered by Layton against Harper – came during an exchange of whether or not the Conservatives had a plan for the economy: “Where’s the platform, under the sweater?

More interesting than who won however, is what the debates say about the United States and Canada. Each of the debate formats seemed to play to the traditions of the office and political system of its participants. In Canada I feel this was a first – we finally got the format right. Rather than try to adopt the US presidential template, this year’s Canadian debate was downright parliamentarian in its style: raucous, aggressive, with lots of back and forth. Personally, I believe this was both more effective and engaging for the audience. Unlike presidents, who often try to stay above the fray, parliamentarians should be in the thick of it – and this debate format allowed these skills and that energy to come to the fore.

In contrast the US veep debate was very controlled, orderly and, well, patrician in comparison. As with the Presidential debate there was virtually no back and forth. Very little sparring and engagement between the principles. Indeed, the participants were almost passive aggressive – a little dig here or there – rather than engaging one another in battle. But then, this also reflects the traditional of the executive branch in the United States, which historically has often been patrician, less partisan and above the fray of congress (and especially the house of representatives). Presidents don’t debate people once in office like a Prime Minister does during Question Period – they lecture and talk, such as during the State of the Union.

I find the difference in debate styles still more interesting since they seem to run counter to the ideas Canadians and Americans have about each other and themselves. Michael Adams, when writing about Canadians and Americans in his 2004 best seller, entitled his work Fire and Ice to highlight that there was a (growing) difference between the two country’s cultures. Watching these two debates doesn’t make me believe the two country’s culture are converging, but it does feel like they are inversed.

The Canadian debate was downright aggressive. Attacks were unrelenting, constant interrupting, candidates raising their hands in despair, shouting one down. Looked at under different circumstances, I’m sure many Canadians would have considered it all to be very… American.

In contrast the American debate appeared all civilized, and yet had a strong under current of passive aggression. Everybody was very polite and on their best behaviour, even as they sought to tear into their counterpart – in a polite way of course. Watching the debate, it struck me as all very… well… Canadian.

It’s like for one evening Canadians and Americans switched personalities. We had an engaging, aggressive, uncompromising format where the issues and the people came out. The Americans candidates were forced to be polite and thus passive aggressive. Or perhaps there was no switch… it really was like hockey versus baseball. One’s a contact sport, the other isn’t. I just never thought I’d say that about our respective politics.

Obama and Web 2.0 in 1995

Salimah E. just forwarded me this fantastic piece – from the Chicago Reader – about Obama. Part of what makes it fascinating is that it was  written 13 years ago. Just read it and look how consistent Obama’s past and present is from a values and goals perspective. This piece could have been written yesterday. What a rock that guy is.

Also interesting to read the piece from a technology angle. Consider again that it was written a decade before Web 2.0. But look at how Obama’s language and values around community building fit so perfectly with the social media technologies of today. Reading this (again written in 1995!) it becomes obvious that Obama would immediately see the potential and opportunity around online, self-organizing, social media. It explains how and why his stie has done so well. He literally lives and believes in the values of self-organizing to a degree that few other politicians do and so is willing to hand big parts of his site over to its users. (in this case users, supporters, or followers all feel like inadequate words, sigh).

Money quote:

“What makes Obama different from other progressive politicians is that he doesn’t just want to create and support progressive programs; he wants to mobilize the people to create their own. He wants to stand politics on its head, empowering citizens by bringing together the churches and businesses and banks, scornful grandmothers and angry young.”

Obama, different than other progressive politicians? Hmmm, I’ll confess that this line also makes me like the piece because it resonated with Taylor and I’s piece on the death of progressive politics. (Shameless link, I know).