What happened to Ibbitson?

The Globe’s John Ibbitson has always been one of my favourite columnists – Paul Wells may capture the politics of Ottawa best, but Ibbitson got and wrote most effectively on the issues, challenges and tensions that drove public policy in the capital. For a policy junkies like myself his Globe column was a daily must read.

This is why I’ve been unsure how to approach his coverage of the US primaries.

Firstly, and very much forgivable, he read the whole thing wrong when, back in October he pronounced that:

No, we’re not declaring that the New York senator has as good as won the 2008 presidential election. Anything can happen in politics, and anything usually does. But Ms. Clinton is the leading candidate, in both the Democratic and the Republican campaigns: Her own nomination is virtually assured… (Italics mine)

As stated above, many people believed that Obama would never go anywhere (except, of course, us Obama fans – in part out of blind faith and in part out of a belief that because many independents view Hillary as unelectable democrats would not easily nominate her).

But more recently there have been stories that haven’t jived with what I’ve been reading in the US papers. Take for example, yesterday’s article entitled Can his money trump her machine in the most expensive primary yet?. Which, I believe, misrepresents the dynamics of the race. The best example of this is in the 4th paragraph:

It all comes down to organization. Who can get out more of their vote? The answer reveals a simple but profound difference between the Obama and Clinton campaigns. In Pennsylvania, as elsewhere, he has the money; she has the machine. (my italics)

The analysis is correct – the machine often matters more than money – the problem is that few American commentaries agree with that assessment. From everything I’ve read in the US press the broad consensus is that Obama’s machine has been more effective and better organized (according to Time Magazine, The International Herald Tribune, The New York Times, as well as Chris Tucker and Chris Matthews of MSNBC. Indeed, the one exception to this is New Hampshire where pretty much everyone agreed Clinton had a better organization.)

Obama’s superior organization accounts for why he’s dominated the caucuses (where organization matters most) and why, earlier on in the primary season, when Hillary had the money, he was still able to compete. Things may have shifted and Hillary may now have the superior machine, but I’ve not read that elsewhere. She clearly does have deeper roots into the party – but this is a different matter and not the same thing as an organization. (Interestingly, one reason her machine may be weak is that she may have counted on her party connections and a media blitz funded by her initial financial advantage to enable her to crush her opponents quickly, causing her to underinvest in a national organization.)

Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania has far more to do with the fact that it simply has more voters she appeals to: white, middle-aged and baby boomer, blue collar workers. If anything, Pennsylvania was designed for Clinton (just like North Carolina is designed for Obama). The problem is, she may only barely beat him in Pennsylvania, whereas he’ll thump her in North Carolina.

Which brings us to the final part of this piece – don’t expect Clinton to move on, even with a win. Machines may matter more than money, but you’ve got to at least have some dough. If Clinton doesn’t win big in Pennsylvania, she may (but may not!) hobble into Indiana and North Carolina. Either way she simply won’t have the resources to go beyond that barring some catastrophic failure on the part of the Obama campaign.

This campaign is probably over. All Obama has to do is sit back and be quiet. Above all, don’t say a word about Clinton – if he’s seen to be trying to muscle her out he’ll look bad. Let her either get there on her own, or let the party establishment do the work for him. I’m hoping Ibbitson’s next column is about Obama vs. McCain!

6 thoughts on “What happened to Ibbitson?

  1. Lord Kitchener's Own

    It seems to me though that the article in question isn’t talking about Clinton’s NATIONAL machine, or her NATIONAL organization, but her machine in PENNSYLVANIA which, to my understanding IS superior to Obama’s. It’s true that in many states (particularly caucus states) Obama has had an organizational advantage, but it seems to me that in Pennsylvania, it really is her machine versus his money.

    That’s why he’s outspending her in Penn. almost 3 to 1, isn’t it?

    Reply
  2. s.b.

    Her machine in Penn is huge and blankets the state except for a few Philly precincts. She has the entire political machinery of the state behind her, so his outspending her 3:1 hasn’t gained him anything, and that will look bad. To be honest if he hadn’t campaign ed there at all he might have done the same and not looked bad.

    He’s outspending her 5:1 in Indiana, and she’s still ahead. If he loses there with that kind of money thrown at middle America hisnomination is in serious doubt. 90% of the black vote won’t win the white house in Nov, not with 2:1 white vote aginst him. Dems know that.

    If she wins by more than 10% today and wins Indiana by more than 5%, with all the money he’s thrown at those states,he’s in trouble.

    Reply
  3. Lord Kitchener's Own

    It seems to me though that the article in question isn’t talking about Clinton’s NATIONAL machine, or her NATIONAL organization, but her machine in PENNSYLVANIA which, to my understanding IS superior to Obama’s. It’s true that in many states (particularly caucus states) Obama has had an organizational advantage, but it seems to me that in Pennsylvania, it really is her machine versus his money.That’s why he’s outspending her in Penn. almost 3 to 1, isn’t it?

    Reply
  4. s.b.

    Her machine in Penn is huge and blankets the state except for a few Philly precincts. She has the entire political machinery of the state behind her, so his outspending her 3:1 hasn’t gained him anything, and that will look bad. To be honest if he hadn’t campaign ed there at all he might have done the same and not looked bad.He’s outspending her 5:1 in Indiana, and she’s still ahead. If he loses there with that kind of money thrown at middle America hisnomination is in serious doubt. 90% of the black vote won’t win the white house in Nov, not with 2:1 white vote aginst him. Dems know that. If she wins by more than 10% today and wins Indiana by more than 5%, with all the money he’s thrown at those states,he’s in trouble.

    Reply
  5. David Eaves Post author

    Lord Kitchener,

    I don’t disagree that Hillary has a larger organization working for her (basically that of the democratic party) in Pennsylvania. My point is that Ibbitson’s piece reads like this has been true through out the campaign – hence the italicized “as elsewhere.” Indeed, the piece recasts the primary season as a narrative of Obama’s money versus Hillary’s machine when by and large the reverse has been true. It’s been Obama’s machine versus Hillary’s money. It is a virtual consensus in the US media (and even Hillary supporters concede) that Obama’s machine has been superior.
    Where Ibbitson nails is, is that his assessment that Hillary’s deep roots in the party have kept her alive. I’d say it is the only thing that has kept her alive – mostly by allowing her to leverage the political machine’s of others.

    As for S.B. – can you please link me to the poll that shows Hillary leading in Indiana? Both the two most recent polls: The Downs poll of April 16th and the LAT/Bloomberg poll of April 14th have Obama leading Clinton in Indiana by 5%.

    As for the claim that Obama’s spending hasn’t gotten him anything, it is worth noting that Hillary’s lead in that state has shrunk from 20%(!) to 9% or even less.

    Reply
  6. David Eaves

    Lord Kitchener,I don’t disagree that Hillary has a larger organization working for her (basically that of the democratic party) in Pennsylvania. My point is that Ibbitson’s piece reads like this has been true through out the campaign – hence the italicized “as elsewhere.” Indeed, the piece recasts the primary season as a narrative of Obama’s money versus Hillary’s machine when by and large the reverse has been true. It’s been Obama’s machine versus Hillary’s money. It is a virtual consensus in the US media (and even Hillary supporters concede) that Obama’s machine has been superior.Where Ibbitson nails is, is that his assessment that Hillary’s deep roots in the party have kept her alive. I’d say it is the only thing that has kept her alive – mostly by allowing her to leverage the political machine’s of others.As for S.B. – can you please link me to the poll that shows Hillary leading in Indiana? Both the two most recent polls: The Downs poll of April 16th and the LAT/Bloomberg poll of April 14th have Obama leading Clinton in Indiana by 5%.As for the claim that Obama’s spending hasn’t gotten him anything, it is worth noting that Hillary’s lead in that state has shrunk from 20%(!) to 9% or even less.

    Reply

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